September 29, 2023

The cryptocurrency market is already showing signs of uncertainty halfway through the first half of the week.

Bitcoin has already retreated slightly along its current price channel, but this pullback has significantly lower volumes and a lower range.

Bitcoin’s current performance is consistent with uncertainty about whether it will continue to rise or spin.

Some analysts expect the market to continue looking lower as the Federal Reserve steps up its quantitative easing.

This outcome is expected to continue to put more pressure on high-risk assets such as Bitcoin,

On the other hand, BTC saw a significant rally after the outcome of the last FOMC meeting.

These opposite scenarios have culminated in the prevailing unpredictability. Bitcoin’s August 4th price of $22,863 was right in the middle of the current support and resistance range.

Source; TradingView

BTC’s MFI has leveled off near the 50% level and the RSI is showing a similar result.

This reflects reduced outflows, and a closer look at Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics can help understand the market.

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Whales add to their balances during bearish reversals, thus supporting their current range.

Addresses holding more than 100 BTC rebounded from a monthly low of 15,819 on July 28 to 15,856 by June 3.

Source: Glassnode

The Bitcoin Inertia metric also reveals that most of the Bitcoin accumulated especially towards the end of July has not been moved.

The dormant metric is currently near a four-week low. This is a sign that most BTC holders are optimistic about the potential upside.

The rally near the current price level is confirmed by the drop in BTC’s realized gains in the first week of August.

It recorded strong peaks near mid-July as investors cashed out after the previous rally. The futures market has not been left behind by this wave of demand.

The open interest futures measure has seen a significant rally over the past four weeks.

Source: Glassnode

These observations explain Bitcoin’s bullish price floor. Whales hoarding BTC is a healthy sign that can favor the bulls.

However, the market is still waiting for the uncertainty to clear, which means there is still a significant possibility of a downside outcome.

Bitcoin will likely retest the current bullish support line heading into the weekend.

However, its ability to bounce back will depend on whether the market weathers the prevailing climate. A pattern break may also be around the corner.

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