October 7, 2022

Bitcoin [BTC] it reached its 2022 low on June 18, when it fell below $17,700. Since then, the number one cryptocurrency has been up and down the charts. However, BTC has only risen stronger and never reached such levels again, spending most of its days above $20,000.

Now, there could be another side to BTC price movement. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Tomáš Hančar, BTC is Shut up to hit rock bottom – he reported it to be almost a third.

How did this happen?

Based on Hančar’s analysis, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) spent three months at neutral levels.

Hančar went on to point out that the profit-taking indicator of long-term holders (LTH) within the 20 SMA revealed that the bottom indicates a one-third approach. He indicated that the situation was likely to move into the 2018/2019 bear-bull market. Handsar said,

“Regarding the 20-day MA smoothing line in technical terms, between July 10th and 14th we saw what appears to be a bounce of the actual 2020 LTH SOPR low, coincidentally not too far from the 0.49 level, which represented the very lows of both the 2015 and 2018/2019 cyclical bottoms

While the analysis may suggest that investors can start buying, Hančar stressed the need to be cautious. He noted that it was possible to see another dip below $20,000 before a guaranteed rise above that.

Who else agrees?

Previously, Glassnode suggested that the bear market was not completely over. So are other indicators in sync with Hančar’s predictions?

According to the BTC chart, the current market was still neutral as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) in blue and 50 EMA (yellow) were almost at the same level. With this trend, short-term traders may want to observe where BTC is headed next.

Source: TradingView

In the longer term, the 200 EMA (blue) showed signs of an uptrend and held a position just below the BTC price of $22,500. This position could mean that Hančar’s BTC price prediction could come true.

At press time, BTC was trading at 23,176, according to CoinMarketCap. Up 1.09%, buying more BTC could be risky as long-term investors’ preference to wait and watch could pay off.

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