Climate change has affected the ability of meteorologists to accurately predict severe weather events, according to the director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
In one article which was published on Sunday at Hindustan TimesDr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra insisted that climate change has intensified the unpredictability of weather patterns, making predictions more difficult.
“Climate change has increased instability in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in convective activity — thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfall,” Mohapatra said. “The severity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing.”
“This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events presents a challenge for meteorologists,” he continued. “Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered by climate change.”
Because of this, the IMD is expanding its observation network by adding radars, automatic weather stations, rain gauges and satellites to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts.
“Climate change is a fact and we need to plan all our activities accordingly,” Mohapatra said.
Despite vast scientific advances, weather forecasting remains proverbially imprecise due to the inherent unpredictability of weather and the almost infinite number of variables that affect outcomes, which has led some scientists to question even less reliable climate predictions spanning the next few decades.
Dr. Duane Thresher, a Columbia University and NASA GISS PhD climate scientist who has done pioneering work in both tree-ring and ocean-proxy climate modeling, has argued that climate models are inherently flawed.
“Climate models are simply more complex/chaotic weather models, which have a theoretical maximum predictive ability just 10 days into the future,” Thresher said. “Predicting climate decades or even years into the future is a lie, albeit useful for publication and funding.”
Our scientists use climate “proxies,” such as tree rings and ice cores, Thresher says, as substitutes for actual climate measurements. The conclusions reached are “inaccurate and unreliable far beyond what is required for the conclusions drawn.”