New clues about what immigration will look like in a second Trump term

What would it mean for US immigration policy if, on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in as president of the United States? Many people expect a crackdown on illegal immigration. However, recent indications and past actions suggest that the most significant impact of a second Trump presidency would be on legal immigration, including the admission of refugees, immigrant families and highly skilled professionals.

Personnel Policy: “Former of President Trump top allies are preparing to radically reshape the federal government if he is re-elected, potentially purging thousands of civil servants and filling career positions with loyalists to him andAmerica first“ideology”. . . The heart of the design comes from a executive order known as “Schedule F”, according Worthy. The publication too mentionted American Moment, a pro-Trump group, wants to replace current federal workers with “applicants who want to limit not only illegal but also legal immigration to the US.”

It is easy to see how this would result in more restrictive immigration policies. After White House adviser Stephen Miller received pushback the first year he lowered the annual refugee cap, at least one career government official was reassigned so the person could not interfere in the future, according to Border Wars: Inside Trump’s Immigration Attack by Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Michael D. Shear.

With the power to hire and fire public employees, Trump officials could fill the federal government with anti-immigration staff. If immigrants, businesses, and lawyers are now complaining about USCIS, they should consider how the agency would be treated after an anti-immigrant crackdown on USCIS employees during the second Trump-Miller tenure.

Trump likely to fail again to reduce illegal immigration: In a second term, in the name of fighting illegal immigration, Trump administration officials will attempt to enact nearly every restrictive immigration measure considered in recent years. This would include eliminating the practical ability to apply for asylum after crossing the southern border, building more of the “wall,” increasing the use of expedited removal, and other policies.

Given that Donald Trump failed to reduce illegal immigration the first time, there is little reason to believe that similar policies will succeed if tried again. During the Trump administration, between 2016 and FY 2019southwest border arrests (agent for illegal entry) Increased from 408,870 to 851,508—an increase of more than 100%. While the Covid-19 pandemic caused arrests to decline for several months beginning in March 2020, by August and September 2020, arrests had resumed in approximate level of illegal entry seen in the same months in 2019. In short, Donald Trump’s policies have failed to reduce illegal immigration and have been implemented at great human cost, particularly for parents and children separated at the borders.

The Biden administration has largely continued Trump’s border policies, in particular Title 42, which allows people to be deported without further processing. Title 42 is supposed to be a public health measure, but it has been used to prevent many people from applying for asylum. The policies increased Border Patrol apprehensions and encouraged people to enter illegally, often multiple times, likely making borders more problematic. The federal judge has ordered the Biden administration to keep Title 42 in place.

The Department of Homeland Security reports show that over the years stricter enforcement has greatly increased the number of migrants who use smugglers to cross the border (ie, almost everyone who crosses now employs smugglers). The policies also led to increased loss of life. In July 2022, 53 migrants drowned inside a tractor-trailer in San Antonio.

Opposition to legal immigration: Ironically, the Trump administration is likely to try every measure to combat illegal entry, but what has proven effective in reducing illegal entry: Making it easier to legally enter and work in the United States.

Research by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) found that a significant increase in the legal entry of farm workers during the 1950s under the Bracero program dramatically reduced illegal entry into America. Based on border apprehensions, illegal entry at the Southwest border dropped by 95% between 1953 and 1959 as farmers entered legally in greater numbers.

Trump’s immigration policies will likely decimate long-term US economic growth: Growing the workforce is a critical part of economic growth, without which Americans become poorer or see their standard of living stagnate.

Those who argued that Donald Trump was only concerned about containment illegal immigration has a problem — not true. Unlike any president before him, Trump made broad use of executive power under section 212(f) to restrict legal immigration and suspend the entry of many categories of immigrants and temporary visa holders. In 2020, this prevented the entry of workers and professionals on temporary visas and immigrants on family, work visas and Diversity visas. He also set the lowest refugee admissions cap of any president.

Given another condition, expect refugee admissions to be extremely low and Trump to use Section 212(f) to bypass Congress and bar many immigrants and visa holders from entering. The ban on immigration from many Muslim-majority countries could return.

The impact of Trump’s policies would be devastating to the nation’s future economic growth. A National Institute for American Politics analysis concluded that if Trump’s policies had continued, legal immigration would have been cut in half and “average annual labor force growth would have been about 59% lower compared to a no-immigration policy.”

In 2021 and 2022, America saw the negative effects of Trump’s immigration policies, with an estimated 2 million immigrant workers are missing from the US workforce blamed for reducing US economic output and contributing to inflation. Another four years of similar policies would probably have more negative results, possibly longer term, if enacted into law.

Trump is likely to push more international students and highly skilled professionals away from the US: During the Trump administration, many foreign students were turned away from the United Statesmainly in Canada, and employers saw Denial rates for H-1B petitions are skyrocketing. Expect America to lose talent in even more significant numbers if Trump’s entire immigration agenda against highly educated foreign nationals comes to fruition.

Businesses and universities should expect that every idea or regulation that the Trump administration has failed to implement will be tried again. This would mean:

– New limits on who qualifies for an H-1B petition and how (and where) an H-1B visa holder can work.

– Requiring employers to pay well above market wages for H-1B visa holders and employees sponsored for permanent residence.

– New restrictions on foreign students and Optional Practical Training (OPT) and other policies.

There is no evidence that such policies would help US workers the American students— the evidence points to it the opposite would be true. The damage to the US economy and future innovation would be real.

Between 2017 and 2020, lawyers representing businesses, universities and immigrant rights organizations successfully blocked many of Trump’s policies. That task would be much more difficult the second time around since former Trump officials would have learned from their mistakes and had another four years to implement restrictive immigration policies.

What would a different Republican President do? A different Republican president, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis, would likely adopt many of Trump’s policies on illegal immigration. However, DeSantis (or another Republican) may not allow Stephen Miller to return to the White House. Without Miller, a different Republican president could adopt policies on legal immigration more consistent with the views of mainstream economists, especially given the potential for Republican inroads with Asian and Latino voters.

New Limits on American Freedom: Trump’s most important policies will limit legal immigration, which economists note will limit harm innovation and reduce economic growth in America. But the impact will be wider.

“Immigration restriction is a government ban on a wide variety of economic activities by natives,” according economist Michael Clemens. By that standard, a second Trump term would mean less freedom for consumers who want to enjoy goods and services offered by immigrants, Americans who hope to support family members, and employers who want to hire foreign scientists and engineers to compete in the global economy.