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The man who occupied the Oval Office has been holding rallies and endorsing candidates across the country this primary season. And this past week provided critical tests of his influence, from Michigan to Kansas to Arizona to Washington State.
With Trump’s strength in the Republican Party we begin our weekly journey into the numbers.
The former President has been quite successful this primary season in GOP contests without incumbents or with two incumbent lawmakers due to redistricting. By my count, his candidates won slightly less than 90% of contested gubernatorial or congressional primaries that had either no incumbents or two incumbents due to redistricting.
That’s a strong number, though it’s lower than the 96% of primaries his candidates won in the 2020 cycle.
But even Newhouse’s progress underscores the fact that Trump remains a powerhouse in the Democratic Party. As of Sunday, Newhouse had just over 25% of the primary vote and only 34% of those who voted for a Republican candidate in the district. This is incredibly weak for a sitting member of Congress.
The only non-Trump candidates to do so in the modern primary era appear to be Democrats Al Gore, in 1998, and Hillary Clinton, in 2014. Both won their party’s nomination in subsequent presidential elections.
The closest Republicans were George HW Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both polled in the 40s and would win the GOP nomination.
While it’s true that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has beaten Trump nationally, he’s still about 25 points behind him.
Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s position in the GOP is to consider the verbs “could” and “will.” Trump could be defeated if he decides to run for the Republican nomination. However, it will be hard to beat.
A blurry picture three months before election day
Before we get into all this 2024 talk, there’s a big election coming up this year! The 2022 midterms are only about three months away, and the picture has become more uncertain as we get closer to the date.
In addition, there are other issues besides the economy. Abortion may not rank as high on the list of voters’ priorities as the economy, but more Americans than at any time since at least 1984 say it’s a top issue.
The answer to the question of who will control Congress next year has gotten confusing in another way, too: The House and Senate may be controlled by different parties.
The bottom line is that people in the polls are in for an exciting final quarter of the 2022 campaign.
For your brief meetings: Football has started
Residual data
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