September 24, 2022

The man who occupied the Oval Office has been holding rallies and endorsing candidates across the country this primary season. And this past week provided critical tests of his influence, from Michigan to Kansas to Arizona to Washington State.

With Trump’s strength in the Republican Party we begin our weekly journey into the numbers.

Political analysts have long wondered when, or if, Trump’s control of the Republican electorate will end. They have been many articles wrote about how his influence may well be in decline.
Last week, however, he offered proof that Trump remains a center of power within the party. It fits with other evidence suggesting that while former President it may not be as strong as it once was, it remains a force to be reckoned with in the GOP.
Kari Lake will win Arizona's GOP gubernatorial nomination, CNN projects, becoming the fourth caucus to secure a major nomination in the state
Trump-backed candidates swept key statewide primaries in Arizona, including for governor (where Trump’s nominee defeated former Vice President Mike Pence’s endorser), U.S. Senate, attorney general and secretary of state. All of them deny the fact that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election.
Similarly, in Michigan, Trump-endorsed Tudor Dixon won the Republican nomination for governor. And U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump last year after Jan. 6, was defeated in the GOP primary by another Trump-backed caucus in the 3rd Congressional District.
Trump’s Pick for Kansas Governor (Derek Schmidt) won his primary also.

The former President has been quite successful this primary season in GOP contests without incumbents or with two incumbent lawmakers due to redistricting. By my count, his candidates won slightly less than 90% of contested gubernatorial or congressional primaries that had either no incumbents or two incumbents due to redistricting.

That’s a strong number, though it’s lower than the 96% of primaries his candidates won in the 2020 cycle.

So far, the only major contest since last week that a Trump candidate lost was in the open primary for Washington’s 4th District. GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse advanced to the general election under the state’s top-two primary system despite having voted to impeach Trump and had to withstand a challenge from Trump-endorsed Lauren Culp, who was in third position.

But even Newhouse’s progress underscores the fact that Trump remains a powerhouse in the Democratic Party. As of Sunday, Newhouse had just over 25% of the primary vote and only 34% of those who voted for a Republican candidate in the district. This is incredibly weak for a sitting member of Congress.

Indeed, Newhouse and California’s David Valadao, the only other Republican so far to vote to impeach Trump and make it to the November ballot, garnered about 25 percent of the primary vote. Both did so in primaries where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran on the same ballot with the top two vote-getters advancing to November — meaning many non-Republicans voted.
CNN Poll: Jan. 6 hearings haven't changed opinions much, but most agree Trump acted unethically
Trump’s success in the primaries this season shouldn’t be all that surprising, given the national polls. His very favorable rating among Republicans is in the low 50s. That’s down from about 70% at the end of the 2020 campaign, but means just over half of Republicans actually like Trump. There is no other active contender that comes close to this level of adoration.
Speaking of non-Trump candidates, few non-incumbents have ever polled at or above where Trump is currently in national presidential primaries — he’s at about 50% of national primary vote.

The only non-Trump candidates to do so in the modern primary era appear to be Democrats Al Gore, in 1998, and Hillary Clinton, in 2014. Both won their party’s nomination in subsequent presidential elections.

The closest Republicans were George HW Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both polled in the 40s and would win the GOP nomination.

While it’s true that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has beaten Trump nationally, he’s still about 25 points behind him.

Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s position in the GOP is to consider the verbs “could” and “will.” Trump could be defeated if he decides to run for the Republican nomination. However, it will be hard to beat.

A blurry picture three months before election day

Before we get into all this 2024 talk, there’s a big election coming up this year! The 2022 midterms are only about three months away, and the picture has become more uncertain as we get closer to the date.

Normally, in between follow a simple pattern. The party of the White House is losing seats in Congress (especially the House). This is especially true when the incumbent president has an approval rating below 50%. Biden’s approval rating is below 40%.
However, the general congressional ballot continues to tighten. The 3-point lead Republicans held in May has completely disappeared. (The generic ballot usually asks respondents some form of the following question: “If congressional elections were held today, would you vote Democratic or Republican?”)
How Republicans could still blow the 2022 midterms
This is unusual. Often, the provocative party improves his position on the general ballot during the midterm cycle.
The blur in the national environment can be linked to how voters feel important issues of the day. Yes, the economy is the #1 issue. And yes, inflation remains historically high. This has led to a decrease in real disposable income per capita (that is, the money Americans have to spend).
However, there are aspects of the economy that are quite good or at least improving. We are bound for it lower unemployment rate in more than 50 years. The stock market it’s until. Gas prices is below from their peak in June.

In addition, there are other issues besides the economy. Abortion may not rank as high on the list of voters’ priorities as the economy, but more Americans than at any time since at least 1984 say it’s a top issue.

We saw last week that abortion can motivate voters. Democrats have seen a huge increase in voter turnout in Kansas compared to all other primaries so far this season.

The answer to the question of who will control Congress next year has gotten confusing in another way, too: The House and Senate may be controlled by different parties.

Democrats he will probably lose the Parliament, even though the national image for them is improving. They are simply overexposed.
Democrats, however, are only a slight underdog in their bid to retain control of the Senate. We have seen recent good polls for them in battleground states like Agriculture and Pennsylvania. Those same polls reveal that Republicans have had trouble nominating candidates they don’t particularly like.

The bottom line is that people in the polls are in for an exciting final quarter of the 2022 campaign.

For your brief meetings: Football has started

America’s No. 1 sport kicked off Thursday, with the first preseason game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders televised nationally by NBC.
And despite the fact that it is a completely meaningless case, more than 5 million people coordinated. This is a small audience given the number of people who attend regular season games. But in a sign of just how strong a brand the NFL is, the game was by far the highest-rated game of the night.
Just remember: The preseason doesn’t matter. The last two groups losing every regular season game in a season that won every game of that preseason.

Residual data

Drinkers and non-drinkers actually agree: ONE new Gallup poll shows that 75% of Americans believe that alcohol has a negative effect on society. This includes 85% of beverages and 71% of non-beverages.
Electric car owner: While 67% of Americans favor providing incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles, only 42% say they are at least somewhat likely to buy one the next time they buy a vehicle, according to Pew Research Center poll. Just 16% were very likely.
Winter is coming: As heat rages across much of the continental United States, winter storm warnings are active in Alaska this weekend. It’s a sign that summer can’t last all year. After all, we have lost more than 20 minutes of sunlight at the end of the day in New York in recent months.

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