September 27, 2022


Bitcoin (BTC) has been trending higher since June 18. It is possible that this is the beginning of a long-term wave five.

There are two main possibilities for long-term Bitcoin (BTC) wave counting.

The bullish indicates that Bitcoin has just started the fifth and final wave of a five-wave uptrend (white) that began in March 2020.

The main factor supporting this possibility is the fact that the bottom of wave four occurred exactly in the channel connecting the highs of waves 1-3 and the lows of waves 2-4. Additionally, corrective waves two and four had very similar lengths.

A decline below the wave one high at $13,880 (red line) would invalidate this particular metric as wave four would fall into wave one territory.

Short term BTC number

If the suggested reading is correct, the short-term reading would show that from the all-time high, the price has completed a corrective ABC structure (red), in which the A:C waves had a ratio of exactly 1:1.61. This is the second most common ratio between waves after the 1:1 ratio. Subwavelength measurement is given in black.

If correct, this would mean that a new five-wave uptrend has begun. A decline below the subwave two low (red line) at $20,700 would invalidate this particular wave number.

Alternative scenario

Cryptocurrency trader @Thetradinghubb tweeted a BTC chart showing a complex corrective structure. In this, Bitcoin will make another low at $15,000 before resuming the uptrend. However, he suggested that the ratios are low, leading him to believe that this is not the correct count.

So the only other possible count would show that the entire five-wave uptrend has come to an end and the price has now started a long-term ABC (white) correction. The sub-wave reading is given in black, indicating that the price is in sub-wave four and will decline once again to complete sub-wave five.

While the decline is proportional, the problem with this count is the shallow waves four and five (white). Because of these variances, the bullish number remains more likely.

For Be[in]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here

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